Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 33.385241 35.960634 38.756155 42.037573 45.812163 50.053315 55.230241
2025-06-08 28.993865 32.311359 36.132767 40.930532 46.899106 54.233493 64.190617
2025-06-15 27.380627 31.282890 35.982184 42.201620 50.456539 61.432385 77.921539
2025-06-22 25.621524 29.779902 34.946065 42.050101 51.952705 65.973023 88.940744
2025-06-29 24.012032 28.268707 33.682792 41.351661 52.468815 69.055188 98.391100
2025-07-06 22.497301 26.738718 32.229421 40.185212 52.078552 70.594254 105.561761
2025-07-13 22.027469 26.516963 32.469457 41.369144 55.267667 78.306414 126.524691
2025-07-20 21.491573 26.154621 32.465596 42.164839 57.922961 85.640708 150.052469
2025-07-27 20.922786 25.700772 32.283242 42.648440 60.102383 92.569814 176.496128
2025-08-03 20.201617 24.988351 31.671704 42.393099 60.959807 97.100695 199.601354
2025-08-10 19.400670 24.120162 30.774778 41.598666 60.744765 99.354718 217.595758
2025-08-17 18.674157 23.322402 29.934452 40.824135 60.464465 101.406702 236.698902
2025-08-24 18.006906 22.596680 29.186563 40.185280 60.444018 104.259044 262.612072
2025-08-31 17.286750 21.766935 28.242437 39.154665 59.565660 104.942239 280.999139
2025-09-07 17.157819 21.787100 28.589704 40.333811 63.184771 117.840980 378.995149
2025-09-14 16.731117 21.348278 28.198315 40.193336 64.091485 123.928615 455.495665
2025-09-21 16.220577 20.764324 27.549167 39.545480 63.840367 126.680574 517.633724
2025-09-28 15.646462 20.065745 26.688608 38.462298 62.528390 125.955316 549.809121
2025-10-05 15.573742 20.115417 27.019446 39.561703 66.180548 142.077284 860.611235
2025-10-12 15.427290 20.045532 27.150773 40.299712 69.140154 157.570906 1438.991013
2025-10-19 15.230699 19.889960 27.131689 40.747910 71.488646 172.277630 2726.445041
2025-10-26 14.915926 19.540174 26.773491 40.511294 72.108100 180.452644 4983.437894
2025-11-02 14.525458 19.060929 26.179903 39.774658 71.363230 182.448374 7927.658436